There is a lot to talk about in the weather department over the next 24-48 hours with the threat of both severe thunderstorms and strong non-thunderstorm wind gusts. So, let's get right to it:
Thursday evening will be quiet and mild. The abundance of sunshine and a light southeast breeze warmed temperatures into the mid and upper 60s for many throughout northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin. Skies will stay clear through sunset but a gradual increase in cloud cover can be expected as a stalled boundary, now turned warm front, lifts into the region. As the front nears the Stateline it'll also bring with it an increase in moisture (higher dew points). This increase will allow clouds to gradually increase through the overnight, perhaps briefly turning skies mostly cloudy by Friday morning. The increase in clouds may also bring an isolated shower or two, especially near and north of the state line. An isolated rumble of thunder may also occur. Overnight lows will remain in the upper 40s, to near 50 degrees.
Friday Afternoon:
The warm front is expected to clear the Stateline mid-morning Friday, paving the way for mostly sunny skies and exceptionally warm temperatures during the afternoon. Highs will likely reach the mid-70s, with a few locations reaching the upper 70s to near 80 degrees. The record high for Friday in Rockford is 79 degrees set back in 2012.
While temperatures will be rather warm it likely won't be the best day to be outdoors as a south/southeast wind will gust around 45 mph throughout the afternoon. A WIND ADVISORY will go into effect Friday afternoon, lasting until late Friday night. Winds could increase even further (outside of thunderstorms) Friday night around 50-55 mph.
Due to the strong winds, warm temperatures, and low relative humidity values during the afternoon a FIRE WEATHER WATCH has also been issued for northern Illinois as the threat for rapidly spreading fires is high. NO BURNING Friday as fires could quickly get out of control.
Friday evening:
Thunderstorms are expected to rapidly develop over Iowa and Missouri Friday late afternoon and evening as a powerful low-pressure system moves into the Midwest. These storms will develop into a line, racing northeast/east through sunset. Locally, we should remain dry through 7pm-8pm, with storm chances increasing east of the Mississippi River after 8pm.
Our window for storm arrival appears to be from 8pm to 1am. The question marks still in play for severe storms remain the instability and moisture, as both are expected to drop east of the Mississippi River. If, however, storms move in before we lose some of the moisture and instability then the risk for damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes would go up.
The Storm Prediction Center continues to highlight northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin under an elevated risk for strong to severe weather, meaning the threat for isolated to scattered severe storms are possible Friday evening.
Regardless, I do think we will be in line for some strong winds (even if the thunderstorm line itself does weaken some) due to the strong jet stream winds aloft. These winds may be able to overcome some of those limiting factors, keeping the risk for locally damaging winds with any shower or storm through Midnight.
Continue to monitor the forecast through Friday, especially with the threat for stronger storms late Friday evening. Be ready to act if any warnings are issued.
Saturday:
A High Wind Watch has been issued Saturday for the potential of southwest winds gusting as high as 50-60 mph during the first half of the day, with peak winds occurring between 8am-3pm. Sporadic power outages and downed tree branches could occur with winds this strong.
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