Sunday, March 2, 2025

Higher precipitation chances to start the week

 As we begin to round out the weekend and move into the next work week we'll continue to see much of the same as yesterday where clear skies and cooler conditions will hang around the state line. As high pressure continues to move overhead a lack of moisture along with stronger pressure will keep us calm and dry for the rest of our Sunday. As we move into tomorrow and the days to follow though, our precipitation chances quickly begin to rise.

Starting tomorrow morning, a brief system will move through the morning hours, which won't be as heavy as the events to follow. Still with a little bit of lift and moisture in the atmosphere some rain and even winter precipitation will be possible during the morning commute. However, as we move into the night, our first spring like weather system will move in bringing multiple rounds of rain and possible snow lasting until Wednesday.


Starting with tomorrow's chances, a brief "vorticity max" or an area of extra lift will move into the area during the morning coupled with some moisture. Although this won't be as widespread, slick conditions on roadways may be possible tomorrow morning as morning temperatures may still be below freezing when these showers arrive.

Into Monday night, the leading edge of a large trough will move in with plenty of moisture allowing for widespread rain showers Monday night and into Tuesday morning. These will only be the first of a few rounds yet to come but as we move into Tuesday morning, we could begin to see a little break in precipitation until we reach the afternoon.


Moving into the afternoon and evening of Tuesday precipitation chances will continue to increase as even more moisture will be present at this time. Widespread rainfall is looking likely for the majority of Wednesday as the combination of good moisture and lift will be present. Temperatures will be near 50 degrees however with a low-pressure system very close by, we'll see stronger winds combined with heavy rainfall. As the low-pressure system moves east of us colder air will begin to wrap around the backside of the low cooling temperatures below freezing. Although moisture won't be as strong within this cold air, there will still be enough present for some snowfall Wednesday, the good news is though accumulation looks to stay below an inch.

Even though snowfall may be below an inch, before that with multiple rounds of rain on Tuesday widespread rainfall totals over a half an inch look likely with this system. As we get closer these totals will be known better however as it looks right now this looks to be our first "soaking" system of the year with some models showing over an inch of rain possible in some locations.
A brief break will arrive on Thursday, however as we look towards the end of the week another low-pressure system will track close by once again bringing more precipitation chances. As it stands right now, not much agreement can be made on precipitation intensity or type however the chances do look possible going into Friday for more rainfall and even accumulating snow. Spring is here in the upper levels of the atmosphere as the jet stream continues to become more active! With these systems our precipitation chances all rely on if we land on the cooler or warmer sides of these systems!

 





No comments:

Post a Comment