The Stateline missed out on the impactful severe weather from Sunday, with most of the storms pushing well South and East of Rockford. On the tail end of this system, colder air is already beginning to filter in. This may allow for a few wrap-around showers to fall as rain or snow, particularly between 11PM-4AM. Any snow that does come down should not accumulate, but could limit visibility for a short time.
We will dry out by sunrise Monday morning, but temperatures will only rebound to the mid-40s. We will see some late afternoon and evening sunshine as cloud cover filters out of the area through the second half of Monday. Tuesday will bring more cloud cover, a few evening showers, and our next chance for storms late.
Futurecast has the strongest of the storms moving in after midnight Wednesday morning, primarily West of Rockford. The main concerns with these storms will be hail and damaging winds, given the elevated nature of them arriving overnight. The Western half of the Stateline is under a Level 2/5 Slight risk for severe storms.
The potential for storms will continue into Wednesday morning and afternoon. There could be a lull between a few waves of storms, and that lapse in precipitation may allow for stronger storms to develop. At the moment, storms appear to be most likely during the first half of Wednesday, with chances diminishing through the afternoon.
Wednesday's storm system could again produce a wide swath of severe weather, with a large portion of the Ohio River Valley down through Arkansas under a 30% risk (Enhanced risk equivalent) for severe weather, while the 15% (Slight equivalent) risk extends through much of the Stateline. Overall, the upper-level dynamics of this system look stronger than Sunday's, but the limited daytime heating could be our limiting factor. Point being, there is another risk for severe weather Tuesday night into Wednesday, so keep tuned to the forecast over the next few days!
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