Our next round of widespread precipitation will arrive Monday night through Wednesday. This strong low-pressure system will bring the potential for soaking rain and even some isolated thunder, especially Tuesday morning through evening. Colder air will then filter in through Wednesday, flipping things over to snow by afternoon. This system will be accompanied by strong winds, particularly Wednesday afternoon and evening, with NW gusts nearing 30-40 mph. See below for a rough timeline from Monday night through Wednesday, with expected precipitation on top and potential wind gusts and direction below the timeline.
For those more visually inclined to see future radar projections, here is the Futurecast model showing the start of rain showers after 12AM Tuesday, with more widespread and soaking rain arriving for much of the daytime hours on Tuesday. We could also see a few rumbles of thunder Tuesday morning and afternoon, depending on some possible elevated instability. The surface low pressure will bring its "dry slot" our direction Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, easing winds and precipitation temporarily. Then, colder air will bring a flip to snow early in the day of Wednesday. With the wet ground, snowfall rates would have to be pretty heavy for any accumulation more than a dusting, so only minor snow accumulations are expected at this time. But that will come with strong winds, so visibility may be a big issue Wednesday afternoon as the snow is falling.
The rainfall and melted snow may exceed 1" of total precipitation for many in the Stateline, especially those Northwest and West of Rockford. This could cause some flooding in low-lying areas given the limited topsoil to thaw out thus far. Be prepared for some minor flooding if rainfall exceeds 1" between Tuesday and Wednesday.
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