Timing out the severe weather potential Sunday

 Temperatures will have a sharp gradient tonight as a front bisects the area. South of the front, lows will only reach the upper 50s, while North of it will see lows in the 40s. This front will also be the epicenter for a few showers and elevated storms, particularly into the early hours of Sunday morning.

The early morning round will likely not produce any severe weather, but there are a few windows to watch for Sunday. Between 5-10AM Sunday morning, we could see a few gusty storms develop with isolated pockets of small hail. I do not expect these storms to produce widespread severe weather, but a marginally severe storm or two may be possible. Depending on how the first round of storms evolve, there is another wave of storms possible between 1-6PM. This round could produce widespread severe weather but is heavily dependent on how the first round develops. If we see limited recovery and daytime heating between rounds, the second round would be generally weaker locally.

Futurecast has generally been depicting both rounds consistently thus far, with a few isolated storms during the early and mid-morning hours of Sunday. These storms could produce marginally severe winds and hail, but many storms from this round will remain on the weaker side.

We may even briefly dry out between rounds, but the early afternoon is when another wave of storms will develop. Futurecast currently places this round primarily South and East of the viewing area, keeping us free of widespread severe weather. If the system were to slow down any further, recovery between the two rounds would be greater. This could allow for stronger storms locally toward far Northern Illinois.

The outlook from the Storm Prediction Center highlights the confidence of storms well. Most of the Stateline region around Rockford is under a Level 1/5 Marginal risk, while Levels 2 and 3 (Slight and Enhanced) are further South and East where daytime heating will be maximized before the line of storms arrive. Stay up to date on the forecast and be sure to have multiple ways to receive warnings for tomorrow morning and afternoon!