Soaking rainfall starts tonight, flips to snow Wednesday

 After a mild and even at times sunny afternoon, clouds have been filtering back in through this Monday evening. Our next wave of widespread precipitation will follow that, with scattered rain showers beginning shortly before or near midnight tonight. Temperatures will not drop far this evening with the increase in clouds and moisture. Overnight lows will likely range from the low to mid-40s.

We may get a brief lapse in precipitation toward early Tuesday morning, but much of the daytime Tuesday will feature widespread rain with steady to moderate bands within the showers. Rainfall rates could reach near or above 0.25" per hour, which will likely cause some ponding on roadways within the heaviest rain. This will continue into the evening before another break in those precipitation rates as the surface low pressure system passes overhead Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning.

 

Once the low pressure clears us to the East, much cooler air will begin to wrap in behind it. Temperatures will quickly drop from the 40s Wednesday morning to the 30s by afternoon. This will flip our precipitation over to snow near 12PM, with some bands of steady snow showers possible through the afternoon until drier air arrives late. This flip to snow will also be paired with a stout NW wind, gusting near 40-45 mph. That will cause significant drops in visibility even if the snow remains somewhat light. Snowfall accumulations do not appear to be that significant locally due to the mild and wet ground leading up to it, but some minor accumulation on grassy and elevated surfaces may be possible.

In total, widespread rainfall will reach near or above an inch for most in the Stateline. This could cause some flooding in low-lying areas, especially if most of that rain comes down between Tuesday morning and evening. Generally speaking, I expect most of the Stateline to receive between 0.75-1.5" of rain, with some localized higher amounts, especially within any embedded thunderstorms. Things will dry out for the daytime on Thursday before our next round of rain or wintry mix Thursday night into Friday.