Comfortable weekend with higher rain chances next week

 As we started our weekend yesterday it was a pretty comfortable day as we got to 80 degrees yesterday! Breezy conditions stuck around through the afternoon yesterday as well as hazy conditions do to wildfire smoke moving in from Canada while a few light showers also moved through the late-night hours. Through the weekend much of the same will stick around through the weekend.

As we go through the day today temperatures will be a little cooler as partly cloudy skies will stick around for the majority of the day. Within the partly cloudy skies, wildfire smoke will still be present which will make the skies hazy at times especially into the evening. Along with that, chances remain low for precipitation, but a very isolated shower cannot be ruled out tonight mainly for the western portions of the state line.

 Much of the same will stick around as we head into tomorrow as partly cloudy to even mostly sunny skies tomorrow will allow for temperatures to climb a little more possibly making another run at 80 degrees. Wildfire smoke will continue to stick around tomorrow as well.

Heading into the beginning of the week temperatures will begin to climb well into the 80's as we begin to receive warmer and more moist air with our low-level winds in the atmosphere changing to southerly. Temperatures will climb Monday while we stay dry however on Wednesday our next trough and low-pressure system will move in offering the chances for showers and thunderstorms

Much higher moisture values than we've seen most of this year will move in by late Tuesday offering some of the fuel needed for showers and thunderstorms. With this system lasting for a couple days along with another system possible later this week, we may see a few chances for both showers and storms as we head into the middle of next week. 

Hazy skies continue with the late arrival of isolated showers Friday evening

 

Friday morning started off with plenty of sunshine, but it didn't take long for both the cloud cover and haze/smoke to move in, leaving overcast skies into Friday evening. Temperatures did manage to warm into the mid and upper 70s, with Rockford reaching a high of 80 degrees. This was our first 80 degree reading since May 16th when the high made it up to 88 degrees.

There have been a few showers that have tried to move down into northern and northeast Illinois, but very little of that has - so far - made much progress in reaching the ground. A slightly better organized area of showers and isolated thunderstorms have formed ahead of a cold front in Wisconsin and are quickly racing down the western edges of Lake Michigan Friday evening. The thicker band of cloud cover we have now will actually clear some through sunset from north to south, just ahead of the line of showers and storms north of Milwaukee.

The clouds have already cleared north of the state line, but it doesn't look like it thanks to the thick haze and smoke in our atmosphere. The image below is from our SkyTrack camera in Beloit, WI where clouds have currently moved out, but the smoke remains thick.

 

There still remains an isolated chance for a shower, and perhaps a rumble of thunder, by 9pm/10pm Friday evening. But the best location for this to occur will be mainly across southeast Wisconsin and northeast Illinois and likely stay east of I-39.

Once the cold front passes some of the thicker haze and smoke may clear through the night, but I still expect us to see hazy skies Saturday. The cold front will be to our west near the Mississippi River which will leave our skies locally quiet and dry. Afternoon temperatures will warm into the mid 70s Saturday, and then upper 70s Sunday. Overall, it looks to be a very nice weekend.

 

Strong winds, hail primary concerns with isolated evening threat

Improvements in the temperature department were quick to spill into the Stateline Thursday, leaving afternoon highs in the low 70s. 

We get a little warmer this afternoon, though another quick-moving disturbance may have a slight impact on your Friday evening plans. First things first, most of the day will be pleasant with plenty of sun early on giving way to a partly cloudy afternoon. Highs will end up closer to the 80° mark. 

The only hiccup in the forecast will be winds as they look to become quite breezy out of the northwest, with gusts hanging near the 30 mph mark. 

Heading into the late afternoon and evening hours, forecast models show this disturbance sliding into the western Great Lakes, sparking up a few storms in the process.  Overall, it looks like the best parameters for strong to severe storms will be east of I-39 in areas closer to Lake Michigan. 

That being said, the Storm Prediction Center continues to keep areas near and east of I-39 in a 1 of 5 Marginal Risk with hail and strong winds being the primary risks. If you have any Friday evening plans such as dinner outside or perhaps heading to City Market, keep an eye on things. Any storm potential won't last long after sunset, leaving us dry with partly cloudy skies into Saturday.

 

Another big headline this weekend is going to be the introduction of wildfire smoke. This will give our sky a bit of a haze but as of now, it looks like most of the smoke will likely remain elevated. This means that this incoming plume shouldn’t have any impacts to our air quality. Just hazy skies. 

This weekend is looking nice as both Saturday and Sunday feature a good deal of sunshine. A backdoor cold front will traverse through the area early in the day Saturday, allowing temperatures to dial back into the mid 70s for the start of the weekend. Thankfully, this cold front will have minimal impacts on temperatures into June as we're right back near that 80° mark. Next, we'll be seeing multiple days in the 80s and with that warmth comes a better shot for storms.

Isolated severe storms possible Friday afternoon and evening

 

Thursday turned out to be a beautiful day with temperatures warming into the low 70s area wide. The day started off with a bit of fog, but the sun was quick to return by mid-morning. The heating of the day allowed clouds to build, leading to partly cloudy skies for a time during the afternoon.

A weak upper-level disturbance moving across the Great Lakes and Midwest produced a few showers to our north in Wisconsin, but very little across northern Illinois. And as we get further into the evening the chance for any precipitation continues to dwindle. As the sun sets, we will begin to lose some of the cloud cover which will lead to a relatively quiet night. Overnight lows will dip into the low 50s, with a few spots possibly falling into the upper 40s once again.

Friday will begin with plenty of sunshine but similar to Thursday, clouds will begin to bubble up during the late morning and afternoon. A warming air mass aloft will bring temperatures during the afternoon close to 80 degrees. But a cold front moving in from the north along with strengthening winds in the jet stream will help produce isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms, first in Wisconsin, during the afternoon before sinking down into parts of northern and northeast Illinois late afternoon and evening.

The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted parts of the viewing area within a 'marginal' risk for isolated severe storms Friday afternoon and evening. This isn't going to be a widespread storm event, but with just enough instability building up during the afternoon a strong to severe storm remains possible. If storms do reach severe limits wind and hail would be the biggest threats. The window for storms will be from roughly 3pm/4pm through 10pm. The incoming cold front will pass to our west Saturday and should settle around the Mississippi River during the afternoon, keeping the rain threat to our west.

Rain chances stick around, low severe risk Friday

Some clearing occurred overnight, setting the stage for some patchy fog ahead of Thursday's morning commute. The highest travel impacts remains south of I-80, though visibility locally could sporadically drop to a mile or less in spots. So, give yourself a bit of extra time for your morning travels.

  

Today will be another mostly cloudy day as yet another weak disturbance pivots around the parent upper level low to our north. Along with the cloud cover comes a low chance for isolated sprinkles and showers during the afternoon. Temperatures will finally jump back into the low 70s.  

 

 

Friday's story is very similar, just a bit warmer and a day that features a more organized breeze. This will leave afternoon highs in the upper 70s. Towards the late afternoon-evening hours, our focus will then be with a disturbance sliding in from the north. Models show a batch of showers and storms developing along this disturbance as it slides southward through Milwaukee, and Chicago.

One or two of these storms could take on severe characteristics which is why the Storm Prediction Center has placed the eastern half of the Stateline (areas east of Monroe, Freeport, and Amboy) under a level 1 Marginal Risk. The biggest concerns will be strong winds and hail up to quarter size.

High pressure building in will make for a pleasant and dry weekend. Highs will slowly rise above late-May standards this weekend and stay that way into the first few days of June. And yes, we are talking about 80° weather, something the Stateline hasn't seen since May 16th, a whopping 13 days ago! 

When will northern Illinois see 80° weather again?

For those wanting this cooler than average stretch to come to a close, the light at the end of the tunnel is much closer than you think. 

After Rockford peaked in the mid 60s Wednesday temperatures will make the climb back into the low 70s today. The climb to the 80° mark however doesn't begin until Friday as highs peak in the upper 70s. We can expect similar warmth this weekend before the thermometer FINALLY eclipses the 80° mark next week, just in time for the start of June. 

Now, its not out of the question that Friday or Sunday could become our next 80° day since temperatures will wind up very close to that mark. 

Saturday has a question mark, a backdoor cold front that slides through shortly after sunrise. This will limit highs closer to the mid 70s.

Showers likely Wednesday morning

It'll be important to have the umbrella handy this morning as showers will be likely between sunrise and the mid-morning hours. Forecast models do toss a little instability or atmospheric energy into the mix which could result in a few heavier downpours or an isolated rumble of thunder. 

As the low drifts further east into the Ohio Valley, shower chances will turn much more scattered in nature for the afternoon and evening. The combination of today's gloomy weather and cool wind out of the northeast, afternoon highs will be severely limited to the low 60s. To compare, today's high of 64-degrees falls 12-degrees short of late-May standards. Conditions remain fairly dry overnight with overnight lows falling back into the low 50s.

Another disturbance pinwheeling around the main upper-level feature will result in a slim chance for a shower or sprinkle Thursday. Breaks in the clouds will be much more likely which should be enough to get us back in the low 70s. Small chances carry on into Friday as yet another disturbance, one that aims to pass well south of the Stateline, brings in some moisture late into Friday night.

The one thing to keep an eye on for the weekend is the progression of a backdoor cold front. As we talked about yesterday, forecast models continue to show a cold front coming off of Lake Michigan and swinging through on Saturday. This would likely leave us cooler than currently forecast. IF that front doesn't develop, we will likely see temperatures soar into the mid to upper 70s. Temperatures from there will climb further, landing in the upper 70s again on Sunday and then low 80s on Monday.

Summer-like pattern set to return as June begins

 As we get ready to flip the calendar page over to a new month it looks like our weather will also flip into more of a summer-like pattern as temperatures warm back to, and above, average for the beginning of June. This will also lead to more of an active pattern, one that could feature more opportunities for showers and thunderstorms across the middle of the country.

Longer-range outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center highlight a higher probability for above average temperatures across much of the Midwest and Great Lakes during the first week of June. There is also a higher probability for above average precipitation as the jet stream becomes more active, moving from southwest to northeast.

High pressure will eventually build over the Southeast allowing the jet stream to be pushed to the north.

Where exactly the jet stream ends up will not only determine where the more active storm track will reside, but also where the heart of the heat will sit. If the jet stream remains displaced more to the north of the Stateline it would keep the storms to the north, leaving the region under mostly dry and warm/hot conditions.

If, however, the jet stream remains close by - or even right on top of us - the hopes of having the heat return would likely be limited with several chances for showers and thunderstorms. This more active pattern would also increase the potential for severe weather as storms feed off of the building heat to the south. While it's too early to get into specifics of where exactly this pattern develops, it looks like our weather locally will become a little more active by the middle to end of next week.

 

Few rain chances ahead, best arrives Wednesday morning

Memorial Day celebrations went uninterrupted as high pressure locked over the Great Lakes provided us with lots of sun and slightly below average temperatures. Officially, the Rockford Airport topped out at a pleasant 70° which falls 5° short of late-May standards. Monday was also Rockford's 10th day in a row at or below average. 

This cooler than average streak will likely carry on into the second half of the work week as an upper level low swings more cloud cover and low rain opportunities our way. An isolated sprinkle or shower can't completely be ruled out during the day Tuesday but dry air at the surface, thanks to an easterly wind, will limit the overall coverage. Temperatures will end up very similar to Sunday and Monday with most registering on either side of the 70° mark. 

As a surface low becomes a bit more organized late Tuesday night, we should start to see a steady increase in some light showers through Wednesday morning. A small increase in instability may also lead to an isolated rumble of thunder or two. The combination of Wednesday's cloud cover and light rain will leave us at our coolest point out of the week, with temperatures in the low to mid 60s. 

Following the departure of the low, our focus will then turn to a warm up that will leave us with near 80° temperature for the weekend. The one limiting factor to some of the weekend warm up would a backdoor cold front Saturday. 

Forecast models have winds shifting more to the northeast/east during the early portions of Saturday which would result in a cooler afternoon. If that front, however, doesn't develop to its fullest then temperatures would likely be on the warmer side as upper-level ridging develops and takes control. This would help push high temperatures into the upper 70s this upcoming weekend, with low to mid 80s early next week.

Warming trend expected this week following recent cool pattern

 

Temperatures have been running below average for just a little over a week, with our coolest stretch occurring last week when temperatures failed to make it out of the 50s last Monday through Wednesday. And even though numbers were slightly below average this past weekend, it was a very comfortable weekend with plenty of sunshine and highs in the upper 60s and low 70s.

Temperatures on Memorial Day warmed into the upper 60s and low 70s, with Rockford's high reaching 70 degrees. Even though this was still about 5 degrees below average, the pattern heading into the beginning of June appears to be a warmer one.

For the rest of the Monday evening clouds will continue to increase leading to mostly cloudy skies for much of the night. Temperatures will fall right around 50 degrees early Tuesday morning. Showers well to our west and southwest are tied into an upper level low (trough) that'll become slightly better organized over the next 24 hours, leading to an increase in our shower potential towards the middle of the week.

An isolated shower or two can't completely be ruled out during the day Tuesday but dry air at the surface, thanks to a couple days of an easterly wind, will limit the overall coverage. As a surface low develops late Tuesday night we should begin to see a steady increase in some light showers through Wednesday morning. A small increase in instability may also lead to an isolated rumble of thunder or two throughout Wednesday morning and afternoon.

Temperatures on Tuesday will warm once again into the upper 60s, but a few forecast models develop enough breaks in the cloud cover during the afternoon to bump temperatures in the low 70s. If we do in fact see those breaks, then temperatures would be a bit warmer than the current forecast of 69 degrees. But whatever breaks would occur would short-lived as more moisture moves in by evening. The combination of cloud cover and a light rain Wednesday will leave us at our coolest point out of the week, with temperatures in the low to mid 60s. The rain showers will begin to move out late Wednesday afternoon with only a few lingering showers rotating around the backside of the low Wednesday night and Thursday.

Following the departure of the low a warming trend looks to get underway with temperatures rising back into the at least the upper 70s for Friday, possibly reaching the low 80s over the weekend and into next week. The one limiting factor to some of the weekend warm up would be the development of a backdoor cold front Saturday. Some models have winds shifting more to the northeast/east early Saturday which would result in a cooler afternoon. If that front, however, doesn't develop to its fullest then temperatures would likely be on the warmer side as upper-level ridging develops. This would help push high temperatures into the upper 70s this upcoming weekend, with the low to mid 80s through the first week of June.

The longer-range outlook heading into the beginning of June does favor a higher probability for above average temperatures, but below average precipitation.   

Rain chances hold off for Memorial Day celebrations

Weather-wise, there hasn't been much to complain about over the holiday weekend. Each day has featured a good mixture of sun and clouds with highs hanging around the 70° mark. Same story, different day as high pressure continues to sit comfortably over the northern Great Lakes. 

Though winds remain cool off of Lake Michigan, we can expect afternoon temperatures to land pleasantly on either side of the 70° mark. Enjoy!

Changes begin to slowly spiral in overnight as a weak area of low pressure inches closer. This will allow our cloud cover to increase overnight, leaving us mostly cloudy come Tuesday's morning commute. Though our rain chances will be hit-or-miss Tuesday, I'd still recommend having the umbrella with you just in case you are outside and run into a shower. 

The better shower chances hold off until late Tuesday evening and Tuesday night as the low itself swings into the central Great Lakes. A few heavy downpours cannot be ruled out during this time. Come Wednesday, showers are likely to turn more scattered in coverage once again and should be confined to the early portion of the day. Mixed sunshine may emerge by the afternoon hours, allowing temperatures to climb back into the upper 60s.

There may be enough moisture leftover for a shower Thursday or Friday. However, it will be at this point in the week where our focus will shift from rain chances to a warm up that will likely spill into the final weekend of May. Afternoon highs will end up closer to the 80° mark Friday, and then remain in the mid to upper 70s Saturday and Sunday.

Scattered showers return for a few days this week

 Sunday afternoon marked the first time since last Sunday where Rockford reached at or above 70°. That 6-day streak marks the longest stretch of sub-70 degree weather this late in the season since June of 2001!

It will be an almost copy and paste weather day heading into Memorial Day, another good day to spend time outside. The morning will start out a little cool, but sunshine will bring us near the 70-degree mark for afternoon highs. Cloud cover will thicken up towards the evening, but we will remain dry at least into Monday night.

Tuesday morning will start a period of potentially showery weather, with an increase in moisture underneath a developing weather system. This will bring light and scattered showers to the region starting Tuesday.

Highest coverage of showers looks to be possible Tuesday night into the early half of Wednesday. A surface low may try to develop underneath the upper-level weather system, which could provide additional support for steadier showers. Some spots could pick up a quarter to half inch of rain, with higher amounts possible if a stronger surface low pressure develops. Spotty shower chances may linger into Thursday, but in less coverage than Wednesday.

The upper weather system will keep a cooler air mass around through the middle of the week, with highs in the 60s to low 70s for a few more days. Broad ridging to the West will spill our way by the weekend, allowing for a warmer pattern to set in. High temperatures will likely return to the mid-70s by the weekend.

Isolated rain chances through the beginning of the week

 So far through the holiday weekend we have been able to stay mostly dry up until this morning. A few isolated showers have developed for mainly the southern portions of the state line as a bit higher moisture was able to make its way north through the night helping a few showers develop.

These showers are expected to stay light through the morning and will quickly fizzle out as we continue to head towards sunrise. Shower chances the rest of the day will remain low as moisture will be pushed to our south giving us partly cloudy skies this afternoon.

With showers clearing early today we'll see a good dose of sunshine compared to yesterday, however even with sunshine, temperatures will only get up into the upper 60's today, but we may also be able to crack the 70-degree mark!

Much of the same temperature wise will continue into tomorrow as well as we expect temperatures to get right back up into the upper 60's just like the days prior. A bit more cloud cover will be present though tomorrow as our next low-pressure system begins to develop to our northwest. Shower chances luckily look lower through the day tomorrow so the holiday should stay dry during the day!

Heading into Tuesday though is when we'll see our next upper-level low pressure system begins to take shape just to our northwest. This system will be "cutoff" or not following our jet stream, so we'll see impact from this slow-moving low-pressure system for a few days.

While the upper-level low pressure system will be positioned to our northwest the surface low pressure will be down to our southwest which will allow a bit more moisture to be funneled northward ahead of the low. As we head through Tuesday, the combination of good forcing from the surface low and higher moisture content will bring the chance for a few scattered showers. Then into Wednesday we'll hang on to some precipitation chances into the afternoon as the surface low will be a bit closer to us. However, through the day on Wednesday our moisture content will be decreasing so we expect shower chances to be a bit lower!

The good news is that after this morning's showers we should see at least a 36-hour dry period through the holiday tomorrow! Heading into the night tomorrow and beyond though is when precipitation chances begin to rise!