We have been running a rainfall deficit all spring, as the Rockford airport is now short by about 2" since March 1st. The latest drought monitor from the National Drought Mitigation Center shows much of the region now within a Moderate Drought, a little bit of an expansion from last week's outlook. This data is prior to Tuesday's rainfall of over an inch, so there may be some improvements for next week, but we remain in a dry pattern ahead.
We will remain under the influence of high pressure through the holiday weekend, but Tuesday into Wednesday will bring subtle rain chances. This map shows how much water vapor there is in a vertical column of air, indicating much higher moisture to the South. The high-pressure Northeast will prevent much of that moisture from reaching us until Tuesday and Wednesday, when smaller doses of it reaches this far North. Temperatures will be gradually rising all week as ridging from the West slowly builds in over the week. High temperatures will likely be in the mid-60s through Tuesday, then possibly to the low 70s Wednesday and Thursday.
Looking toward the last week of May and start of June, we will maintain a somewhat dry pattern. The Climate Prediction Center outlook favors drier than average conditions across the upper Great Lakes and Northern Plains. Meanwhile, above average rainfall looks to fall across portions of Texas and New Mexico. Temperatures will look to return near average for us locally, while the cooler pattern continues across much of the Southern part of the country. With broad ridging building into the West, a warmer than average pattern will begin to settle in across the Northern Plains and Pacific NW.
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