Isolated shower and thunderstorm chances through the week, higher chances on Thursday

 Although we've been dry through the weekend with warmer temperatures our dry pattern looks to subside as we head through the middle of the week. Yesterday was once again one of those warm and dry days however a few in the southern portions in the state line may have seen some rainfall yesterday with passing showers and thunderstorms.

A few of those have lasted through the early morning as a few light showers have made their way through the region this morning. We'll expect more of this today as increasing humidity will add enough moisture for a few isolated showers/storms this afternoon into this evening.

Shower and thunderstorm chances tonight are very similar to what we experience in the summer as any rainfall tonight would come from "pulse" or pop-up thunderstorms. We often see these in the summer as with summer heat plenty of instability is available to allow these storms to go up then quickly collapse on themselves. Today though, our chances of complete sunshine have decreased which will limit instability and also our chances for more thunderstorms throughout the region.

A very similar situation will take place tomorrow as ahead of our next low-pressure system, a bit more moisture and humidity will be present for thunderstorms. We do look to have a bit more sunshine tomorrow as well which would give us a higher chance for more instability. If that were to play out tomorrow, we could see a few more of those pop-up thunderstorms towards the later afternoon.

Both today along with the next two days will bring higher humidity along with increasing temperatures both tomorrow and Thursday. Our comfortable warmer weather looks to move away as we'll be experiencing a more summer like heat with muggy conditions.

This will especially be the case on Thursday as our next low-pressure system approaches. Increasing winds, humidity, and heat will provide a bit more fuel for thunderstorms to develop on Thursday along with the possibility of some being severe.

In their most recent update, the Storm Prediction Center outlined a 2/5 slight risk of severe thunderstorms for most of the state line with the southwestern portions under a 1/5 marginal risk. To put this into terms, the meaning of a slight risk often means a few "scattered" severe thunderstorms are anticipated within the yellow risk while the green marginal risk indicates a more "isolated" risk. Either way, we are closely monitoring Thursday for the potential of severe weather.

Although it's still a bit far out, we can still digest this risk a bit further. As it stands now, the environment for strong to severe storms will be there on Thursday for storms to take advantage of, the question is will we get storms? The forcing or "push" we often need to create thunderstorms is relatively weak right now, but some weather models have begun to hint at a bit more forcing or possibly just enough to spark off a few thunderstorms.

If a thunderstorm were to form on Thursday it would have the possibility to be severe as the surrounding environment will have plenty of unstable air and organization (wind shear) to keep these storms going while the main hazards with any storm now look to be damaging winds and hail however a brief tornado would not be ruled out either. This will be a changing forecast over the next few days so make sure to tune into updated forecasts and social media!