Warming trend expected this week following recent cool pattern

 

Temperatures have been running below average for just a little over a week, with our coolest stretch occurring last week when temperatures failed to make it out of the 50s last Monday through Wednesday. And even though numbers were slightly below average this past weekend, it was a very comfortable weekend with plenty of sunshine and highs in the upper 60s and low 70s.

Temperatures on Memorial Day warmed into the upper 60s and low 70s, with Rockford's high reaching 70 degrees. Even though this was still about 5 degrees below average, the pattern heading into the beginning of June appears to be a warmer one.

For the rest of the Monday evening clouds will continue to increase leading to mostly cloudy skies for much of the night. Temperatures will fall right around 50 degrees early Tuesday morning. Showers well to our west and southwest are tied into an upper level low (trough) that'll become slightly better organized over the next 24 hours, leading to an increase in our shower potential towards the middle of the week.

An isolated shower or two can't completely be ruled out during the day Tuesday but dry air at the surface, thanks to a couple days of an easterly wind, will limit the overall coverage. As a surface low develops late Tuesday night we should begin to see a steady increase in some light showers through Wednesday morning. A small increase in instability may also lead to an isolated rumble of thunder or two throughout Wednesday morning and afternoon.

Temperatures on Tuesday will warm once again into the upper 60s, but a few forecast models develop enough breaks in the cloud cover during the afternoon to bump temperatures in the low 70s. If we do in fact see those breaks, then temperatures would be a bit warmer than the current forecast of 69 degrees. But whatever breaks would occur would short-lived as more moisture moves in by evening. The combination of cloud cover and a light rain Wednesday will leave us at our coolest point out of the week, with temperatures in the low to mid 60s. The rain showers will begin to move out late Wednesday afternoon with only a few lingering showers rotating around the backside of the low Wednesday night and Thursday.

Following the departure of the low a warming trend looks to get underway with temperatures rising back into the at least the upper 70s for Friday, possibly reaching the low 80s over the weekend and into next week. The one limiting factor to some of the weekend warm up would be the development of a backdoor cold front Saturday. Some models have winds shifting more to the northeast/east early Saturday which would result in a cooler afternoon. If that front, however, doesn't develop to its fullest then temperatures would likely be on the warmer side as upper-level ridging develops. This would help push high temperatures into the upper 70s this upcoming weekend, with the low to mid 80s through the first week of June.

The longer-range outlook heading into the beginning of June does favor a higher probability for above average temperatures, but below average precipitation.