Dangerous heat possible in the Stateline this week

Anyone else remember this time last year when temperatures reached 97° two days in a row? This week may closely resemble the heat we saw then, with two days of high temperatures in the low 90s Monday and Tuesday.

Monday and Tuesday will be our hottest days, with a widespread area reaching well into the 90s for their afternoon highs. This is an example of what a computer model suggests temperatures may be at 4PM Monday and Tuesday.

 

With dew points rising into the 70s, our heat index will be a big talking point over the next few days. Sunday, peak heat indices may reach near 100° and may push 105° or higher at times Monday and Tuesday. Heat advisory criteria is when indices reach 105° or greater, so an advisory may very well be in the works for Monday and Tuesday.

When it gets this hot and humid, it does not take much at all to produce storms. Our first chance may come late tonight with a subtle wave passing overhead. Scattered showers and storms may be possible toward midnight and may last into early tomorrow morning. How quickly those storms clear may dictate how warm temperatures get tomorrow afternoon. If clouds remain thick into midday, temperatures may be suppressed a few degrees. Regardless, it will be a very humid afternoon either way.

 

Our next chances for storms are still a few days out, but worth noting with the degree of heat and humidity we will have in place. If storms were to get going Monday or Tuesday, they would likely become strong to severe given the extreme parameters that will be in place ahead of them. The Storm Prediction Center is highlighting mainly areas well to our Northwest for Monday's storm potential, but NE Iowa through Michigan for Tuesday, placing much of the Stateline in the higher storm potential. For both days, the main threats for any storms would be damaging winds and large hail. Forecasting storm complexes this far out with such extreme parameters in place is a tricky deal, so be sure to stay tuned as the forecast becomes more refined over the coming days.