Rain chances increasing through the week

 For the past week across the state line rain has not made an appearance since late Monday and early Tuesday morning. Much of the state line has been in a seasonably cooler pattern and has stayed dry through the period as well. Expect rain chances to increase through the next week coming up as more moisture will begin to move into the area.

With any chance of precipitation three main ingredients are involved those being, lift, moisture and instability in the case of thunderstorms. In terms of rain most of the time lift and moisture are the only required ingredients for showers to occur, however we've been limited the one key ingredient being moisture for the last few days.

Currently rain chances are expected to increase through the next week, but the main question mark continues to be moisture, with a sharp cutoff of moisture occurring and the "quality" of moisture that arrives.

On Monday, moisture is expected to increase during the morning along with some enhanced upper-level winds which will help fuel rain showers near Northern Illinois. However, these will be very isolated as seen by the map above the gradient between higher moisture and lower moisture cuts off right near the state line causing some uncertainty with how many showers will be able to occur.

 By Wednesday quality moisture is brought to the Midwest this time being later in the evening. Within this time a shortwave trough or a quick burst of upper-level winds will be positioned just south of the state line allowing for just enough lift to fuel some showers with the increased moisture.

On Thursday we will see the best moisture content we've had since the thunderstorms last week where this will help fuel some showers and thunderstorms. Thursday as of now has the highest potential for precipitation as enhanced upper-level winds along with increased moisture, and even some possible instability will be in place over the state line which will help not only fuel showers but also thunderstorms with any larger amounts of instability.

By Friday though storms from the previous day will wipe out moisture while another low-pressure system develops overhead. This low-pressure system will also bring the return of cooler north and northwesterly surface winds which will push any available moisture further to the south.

As mentioned, multiple times above, the main question mark for this next week will be moisture, but if quality moisture is present for much of next week precipitation chances will be on the rise.