Friday, August 23, 2024

Rise in heat and humidity brings periods of storms

So far, August has featured nearly twice as many days with below average highs than days above average. The last two weeks has been a big reason for that with many days only featuring highs in the 70s. That stretch will come to an end tomorrow with highs reaching the 80s again.

The warm trend starts tonight even though skies remain partly cloudy overnight. This time around, most spots will be a bit warmer than the night before. We only drop to the low 60s and upper 50s for overnight lows, a signal of the warmth to set in tomorrow.

The heat will begin to settle in over the weekend, with afternoon highs reaching the mid to upper 80s Saturday and Sunday, then the low 90s Monday and Tuesday. We may see a chance for showers and a couple storms late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Overnight lows will also be warmer, only reaching down to the upper 60s and low 70s over the next few days into early next week.

Those scattered showers are not all that impressive on Futurecast, but a chance shows up with most computer models between late Saturday evening and Sunday morning as moisture will be on the rise underneath a subtle wave in the jet stream. If rain sticks around longer into the afternoon Sunday, we may be a bit cooler than the current forecast afternoon high of 87°.

With highs into the 90s Monday and Tuesday, heat index values will also be climbing, reaching near 100°. We may reach close to heat advisory criteria, but that usually requires widespread indices of 105° or greater. We should stay dry each of those afternoons, but a slim chance for an isolated thunderstorm may develop with the degree of heat that builds in.

This 7-day forecast is much different than ones of the last few weeks, and we could see the first consecutive 90-degree days since June. Higher chances for storms may be possible late into the week as the upper-level ridge responsible for the summer weather begins to break down.

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