It was a warm afternoon in the Stateline with high temperatures reaching the upper 80s and even low 90s for some! Rockford officially reached a high of 92°, making only the 2nd 90-degree day since June 25th! The other one was just a few days ago on July 31st.
Heading into the evening, we have remained fairly dry, but a few spotty showers had developed along a couple boundaries. One of those was a lake breeze coming off Lake Michigan during the evening, producing a quick downpour just North of Beloit! A couple funnel clouds may be possible along this lake breeze. These funnels would be short-lived if they were to develop and are unlikely to reach the ground.
Heading closer to the new work week, rain and storm chances will be on the rise, even if just in scattered fashion. Starting Sunday night, a few storms will develop along a frontal boundary to the Northwest. This boundary may shift our direction overnight, allowing for some scattered storms to develop along it. These storms would be elevated in nature given the time of day but may still produce gusty winds and small hail if they were to maintain their strength into the Stateline overnight into early Monday.
The daytime on Monday will maintain scattered shower and a few storm chances as the frontal boundary remains nearby or just North. Strong storm threat Monday afternoon remains lower, but a few robust storms may develop along the front toward the evening.
Higher coverage of storms may be possible Monday night as the low-pressure system responsible for the front passes overhead or very close by. The highest coverage of showers and storms during this time will be just to the North of the low-pressure track, which right now favors Southern Wisconsin over Northern Illinois. That track may shift in the next day or two, however.
A few isolated strong to low-end severe storms may be possible Monday, particularly in the evening as the low pressure and better forcing are overhead. A Level 1/5 Marginal risk from the Storm Prediction Center encompasses most of the Stateline to cover this. Any storms that develop would be mainly capable of severe winds and hail.
An axis of heavier rain may be possible within the line of showers and storms along the incoming front. Especially if the front were to stall in any particular location, repeated rounds of showers and storms may pass over the same area between Sunday night and Tuesday morning. Right now, this favors Southern Wisconsin over Northern Illinois, but the path of the low and associated fronts may shift a little bit before then. A swath of rainfall 2" or more may be possible within that region.
Warm and humid afternoons will remain the picture for a couple more days, with higher chances for rain and storms each of the next two nights. Shower chances come to an end early Tuesday with a much cooler afternoon in store to follow. High temperatures return back below average and into the 70s for a stretch heading through the week ahead. Dry conditions also appear likely for much of the week following Tuesday.
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