Thursday morning weather update

 Although the cool and dry stretch has been nice the past week walking outside some may have noticed the grass is starting to lose its color in some areas due to the lack of rain. Expect rain chances to increase though as an upper-level low pressure system begins to impact the Midwest and state line today. As of the time writing this as well, much of the state line is being impacted by some early morning showers and thunderstorms.

As of now most thunderstorm activity is further to the south however for much of the state line we have started our morning with some consistent showers. These showers however pose a big implication to the forecast later today as depending on how both showers and cloud cover trend through this morning it will impact our thunderstorm and possible severe thunderstorm risk later.

Currently nearly almost all of the state line is under a slight, 2/5 risk for severe thunderstorms later with damaging wind gusts and hail being the primary threats but an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out later as well. As of now thunderstorm development looks to happen closer towards nighttime as heavy cloud cover during the day will limit instability from increasing after the morning showers.

The clearing today will be the big story, but as of now not as much clearing is expected by many models as cloud cover sticks around through much of the afternoon. This inhibits instability from developing as significant, but some instability is still expected to develop as skies are expected to clear by 5 o'clock.

Once again depending on how much we destabilize, severe thunderstorm placement and development will rely on that. As of now even some moderate instability behind the days clouds looks to be enough for strong thunderstorm development as the sun begins to set later this evening. As previously mentioned, the main concern with any of these thunderstorms will be damaging winds and isolated large hail.

However, as the night continues and the sun sets whatever instability that was developed through the day will quickly being to erode as lack of sunshine occurs. But through the night some isolated showers and thunderstorms may stick around after the main round (8-10 p.m.) moves through this evening. As the "main" round moves through make sure to have multiple ways to receive watches and warnings.

But precipitation chances continue into tomorrow as the upper-level low continues to spin off to our north helping fire some showers through the evening. These storms as of now look to mainly produce some heavy downbursts but some isolated severe thunderstorms may once again develop with damaging wind gusts and hail being the primary concerns.

These next few days will be busy in terms of weather however pay attention to forecasts as well as watches and warnings the next two days! After this weekend expect a return to the calm weather once again as high pressure begins to develop again.