Chilly Saturday with more scattered showers

 While an isolated sprinkle may be possible Friday night, most of the night will end up dry. Temperatures will end up in the mid-30s for many, setting the stage for another cool day tomorrow. Saturday will feature more scattered showers throughout the day, as temperatures remain below 50 all day!

Much of the early morning may end up dry, but an isolated shower or sprinkle may try to develop. There is a low-end chance for a flake of snow or graupel to try and mix in, mainly across Southern Wisconsin where temperatures start on the cooler side.

Higher chances for rain arrive during the middle of the day as a narrow band of slow-moving showers develops in Southern Wisconsin Saturday morning. This band will pivot across Northern Illinois throughout the afternoon, with some lake enhanced moisture from the East. These showers would be light and scattered in nature but look to be in higher coverage than Friday's showers were.

On and off light rain may be possible throughout the duration of the daytime, even persisting through 6PM. Coverage will gradually decrease into the evening, with clouds thinning out for Sunday morning. Overnight lows will reach near or below 30 degrees for most Sunday morning.

Isolated showers to dodge for trick-or-treating Friday evening

 A few isolated showers have begun developing near the I-39 corridor, moving East. Some of this rain may initially struggle to reach the ground, but a short-lived and light shower cannot be ruled out over the next few hours this evening.

As the sun sets this evening, temperatures will fall into the 40s. That paired with the spotty sprinkles may make for some chilly trick-or-treating conditions. Make sure to grab that extra layer before heading out this evening!

Jackets needed for this year's Halloween, few sprinkles possible

Weather-wise, trick-or-treating in recent years hasn't been too problematic. Not since Rockford observed it's snowiest Halloween on record back in 2019 where the airport picked up 3.1". 

This year's edition of the spooky holiday begins with some sunshine, with clouds gradually gathering up as the afternoon progresses. This is in response to our next area of low pressure which will be diving in from the Upper Midwest. Along for the ride will be enough atmospheric moisture for a sprinkle or two. Temperatures will peak in the low 50s, then drop into the 40s for trick-or-treat hours. 

Sprinkle chances will continue overnight Friday and into the first half of Saturday. Temperatures and atmospheric conditions aloft by Saturday morning may become favorable enough for graupel or soft ice pellets to also be a possibility.

Cloud cover, and a cool northwesterly wind will limit high temperatures to the upper 40s. We should get in on a bit more sunshine on Sunday, helping afternoon highs climb back into the low 50s. Winds will pick up Sunday evening into Sunday night as our next cold front approaches from the northwest. Forecast models show this boundary sweeping through sometime Monday afternoon and with it comes little to no cool Canadian air. So we can expect an upward swing in our high temperatures next week.

Also happening this weekend is the time change. At 2AM Sunday, daylight saving time comes to an end, leaving sunrise times closer to 6:30AM and sunset times closer to 4:45PM. 

From there, sunrises will get later and sunsets will get earlier until the day of the winter solstice. That is set to occur on December 21st at 9:03AM! 

Drought conditions worsen across parts of northern Illinois

 

The latest drought monitor shows drought conditions have worsened for some in northern Illinois with severe drought conditions noted in northwest, west-central, and central Illinois. Locally, this includes the counties of Stephenson, Ogle, Lee, Whiteside, Carroll and Jo Daviess.

Rainfall has been in short supply over the last month or so, despite some of the rain that came down in northwest Illinois Tuesday evening. Upcoming rain chances remain on the lower end with a few sprinkles possible throughout the afternoon and evening Friday and then scattered showers Saturday. After that, conditions look to remain mostly dry and some of the long-range outlooks support the drier, and warmer, trend into the first week and a half of November.

Going into the winter season in a drought isn't something that is ideal, especially if the drought has been persistent over the last several months or season without much soil moisture replenishment. Consecutive drier seasons can deplete deeper soil moisture which, in turn, can have an impact on the upcoming spring and growing season. These impacts can take longer to recover from and potential lead to ongoing drought into the following year, especially if the winter season is also dry.

What is graupel and how does it form?

 A pair of low-pressure systems Friday and Saturday will help to usher in a cooler pocket of air aloft. This is called a "cold core" low because temperatures several miles up will be well below zero! Temperatures will be near or below freezing from the surface to around 1 mile up.

This type of "cold core" low this time of year often produces spotty rain showers, but occasionally when temperatures are just right, graupel can form. Graupel is a type of wintry precipitation that resembles sleet or hail, but forms in a different way from either of those.

When temperatures are cold above the surface like is often the case this time of year, precipitation always starts as snow. Usually by the time it reaches the ground, the air is warm enough to melt it into rain. In unique conditions like we might see on Saturday, the layer of air it falls through is supercooled water droplets. These are called supercooled because they are tiny liquid water droplets that are not attached to any other particles in the atmosphere like dust (referred to as condensation nuclei).

As the snow falls through the layer of supercooled water, the droplets freeze, or rime, onto the snowflakes. This is a very similar process to how raindrops or snowflakes grow larger, but the sub-freezing liquid droplets freeze onto the snowflake, forming a soft white pellet. They resemble small hail but are soft and crushable. Often, graupel looks like tiny Styrofoam pellets with similar texture. Occasionally referred to as "nature's Dippin' Dots", graupel is a unique form of precipitation that is almost a cross between hail and sleet.

We may see our first taste of the upcoming winter season Saturday morning. Scattered showers will be possible through much of the day, but the morning especially could produce a few instances of graupel. Surface temperatures will start in the 30s and conditions aloft will be favorable for such formation of these soft ice pellets. Afternoon temperatures climb near the 50-degree mark, which may be just warm enough to melt anything back over to rain for the second half of the day.

Jackets needed for trick-or-treaters Friday evening

 

It won't be one of the coldest, or hottest, Halloweens on record but it could get a little brisk Friday late afternoon and evening as the ghosts, goblins, and princesses head out to fill their bags with candy.

Temperatures Friday afternoon will be very close to seasonal norm reaching the mid-50s but that will also come with an increase in cloud cover and breezy northwest wind. Low pressure diving southeast from Canada will keep a feed of cloud cover moving in Thursday evening which will initially slow the temperature drop during the evening. But, by early Friday morning drier air moving in should allow skies to clear which will cause temperatures to fall into the mid-30s.

Northwest winds will increase late morning and afternoon, gusting close to 20 mph. This will put a chill in the air as temperatures warm to around 55 degrees with wind chills in the upper 40s from time to time. As another low-pressure system inches closer to the Stateline cloud cover will be back on the increase for most of the afternoon and evening. And with that a few sprinkles - or brief light shower - may be possible, especially late in the afternoon and evening.

Temperatures will be in the low 50s for the start of trick-or-treating, with most communities beginning at either 4p or 5p. By sunset temperatures will be in the 40s with chills dropping through the low 40s by 7p/8p.  You can find a list of trick-or-treating times here. 

Hurricane Melissa is one for the Atlantic basin record books

Once hurricane Melissa's eye touched land, the record books for the Atlantic basin forever changed. 

Melissa's lowest barometric pressure of 892mb is now tied for third with the Labor Day hurricane of 1935 for most intense hurricane. 

 

  

In terms of max sustained wind, the 185 mph winds it had when the storm made landfall in Jamaica is tied with hurricane Dorian (2019) for strongest landfall in the Atlantic basin. It is also the first category 5 storm to landfall since Dorian.  

Melissa remains a category 2 hurricane with winds up to 105 mph as it is departs the Bahamas. From there the storm will race to the northeast, holding on to hurricane status as it tracks east of Bermuda late this evening into Friday morning.

Winds simmer down, temperatures cool as we jump into November

Winds were a bit more intense Wednesday, gusting up to 40 mph in some Stateline locales. That was the 5th time in 12 days where the Rockford Airport came in with a peak gust of 30 mph or higher. 

Fortunately, we'll see a break in the days to come as the system responsible for yesterday's gusty winds continues to push away from the area.

 

Winds today will be out of the west and northwest, light at 5 to 15 mph. That should bring temperatures down a few degrees compared to Wednesday, leaving highs in the upper 50s. With the departure of said system, conditions remain dry with much of the day featuring partly cloudy skies. We then look to fall into the upper 30s overnight, though clouds will be on the increase into Friday morning.

  

Much of Halloween will be dry, though the slightest chance for a sprinkle does arrive late in the afternoon into the evening. As of right now, this shouldn't steer you away from plans to trick-or-treat. Temperatures will peak in the mid 50s but then fall into the upper 40s during the evening. So it wouldn't be a bad idea for your kids to have an extra layer on as they fill up their bags with candy and sweets! 

   

Saturday also features a slim chance for a sprinkle as the associated disturbance pushes through. Otherwise, expect a mostly cloudy sky with temperatures below early-November standards in the low 50s. Similar temperatures will be felt on Sunday, though we should see a little more sunshine. 
 

Gradual warming trend next week with limited rain chances

 After a chilly but near average Halloween weekend, we will see a slow change in the pattern on the way next week. It all starts with the pattern aloft with temperatures about 1 mile up. We will flip things to a Northwesterly flow, pushing the freezing line at 1 mile up across Northern Wisconsin and Michigan. This will allow this milder air from the Southwest to creep into the region.

As a result, surface temperatures will creep back toward the 60-degree mark by the middle of next week. Average for this time of year is the mid-50s, so we will be slowly returning back above average as we head toward this time next week.

Unfortunately, this Northwesterly flow does not translate to much in the way of rain chances. Only a spotty shower will be possible Saturday, Monday, and Wednesday. In total, rainfall will not add up to much. Likely most in the Stateline will fail to see a quarter inch of rain over the next week or more.

Winds ease Wednesday evening

 

Northeast winds have been rather gusty Wednesday, at times reaching close to 35 mph. This is all thanks to an area of low pressure currently over western Tennessee. This low was also responsible for the rain *some* parts of the Stateline received Tuesday evening and overnight.

Most of the accumulating rainfall remained over northwest Illinois and southwest Wisconsin from near Monroe, down through Freeport and into central Lee County. Anywhere east of that and skies were mainly dry.

Once most of the rain came to an end and skies cleared from cloud cover, winds were quick to pick up Wednesday morning. The stronger wind gusts will remain through sunset with a slow ease in winds through the evening as low pressure pulls further away from the Stateline.   

Showers continue to our southwest today while we remain breezy and dry

 Although portions of the state line seen showers yesterday and into the late night most of those showers will continue to drift to our southwest later today as a low-pressure system dives to our south. This system will take most available moisture with it leaving us dry but also bringing gustier winds and even some sunshine into the afternoon.

With moisture being pulled to our south this morning skies will eventually begin to clear by mid-day with even mostly sunny skies possible at times later today. This will help us feel warmer but not much as breezy winds today will stick around thanks to the proximity of the low-pressure system. Towards the late afternoon, wind gusts may approach 30 to even 35 mph at times.

In terms of precipitation beyond that, Northern Illinois and Southern Wisconsin look to continue to stay dry with little to no rainfall possible through Halloween and into the weekend. Low pressure to our south combined with high pressure to our north won't allow much lift to move into the region while our atmospheric moisture content will remain dry as well. 
 

Steady rain continues to fall across northwest Illinois Tuesday evening

 

Rain continues to fall across northwest Illinois Tuesday evening, with a heavier rain now moving into southwest Wisconsin. These showers will continue to move from the southeast to northwest, counterclockwise around low pressure in southern Missouri.

Very little movement in the rain is expected to the east with most of the activity staying over northwest Illinois over the next couple of hours. Over time, the showers will continue to move east before sinking south as low pressure passes well south of northern Illinois tonight. Most of the rain will be coming to an end around Midnight as drier air gets pulled in from the east, allowing skies to clear through Wednesday morning.

Temperatures tonight will dip into the low 40s, rising back into the upper 50s Wednesday afternoon. Northeast winds will begin to increase with the strengthening low, gusting at times to 30 mph throughout the day Wednesday. Skies will remain partly cloudy during the afternoon Wednesday and Thursday before cloud cover moves back in Thursday night.  

Shower chances increase for some this evening into Tuesday night

Temperatures Monday afternoon wound up in the low 60s once again thanks to an abundance of sunshine but also a robust easterly wind. 

Winds remain a factor in the forecast as we progress into the second half of the week. The reason, an area of low pressure diving to our south. 

  

Easterly winds today will limit afternoon highs to the low 60s once again. Unlike yesterday, today's warm up will not feature a good deal of sun. As this storm system dives into the central plains, moisture filtering in will leave skies mostly cloudy. 

 

 

We should stay dry for much of the daylight hours before showers fire up this evening. Forecast models focus the better and more organized chance for rain to the south and west of Rockford. The timing would be from 4PM to 12AM with precipitation totals possibly being as high as a quarter inch. 

 

  

Conditions will then quickly dry out but stay breezy into Wednesday afternoon as this storm system slides into the Deep South states. 

The position of this low will redirect our winds to the northeast and even bring them up a bit, with gusts up to 30 mph being a possibility. This cooler wind off of Lake Michigan will bring temperatures down a few degrees compared to today, landing most Stateline locales in the upper 50s. 

Hurricane Melissa becomes a category 5 south of Jamaica

After undergoing a few eyewall replacement cycles Sunday evening, hurricane Melissa has become the third category 5 storm of the 2025 Atlantic season. The other two were Erin back in mid-August and Humberto back in late-September. 

 

    

The latest from the National Hurricane Center shows Melissa has max sustained winds up to 160 mph and a centralized pressure of 917mb. You can also tell how strong Hurricane Melissa is by how it's being represented on satellite imagery. 

The storm has a stacked cylindrical core that's surrounded by a small pinhole eye with ventilation occurring aloft in the upper-level of the atmosphere. These are the signs of a healthy, strong, and well-put together tropical cyclone.     

Melissa is slowly drifting to the west, but is expected to make a turn to the northeast towards Jamaica by late Monday into early Tuesday morning. The storm will then maintain hurricane strength as it moves over Cuba Tuesday into Wednesday. 

 

Rain chances remain low before Halloween

Lots of sunshine left temperatures above-average in the low 60s to round out the weekend.

 

 

  

A similar amount of sunshine will kick off the work week, though winds will turn breezy and be more out of the east. This will bring afternoon highs down by a few degrees compared to Sunday, landing most locales in the upper 50s. 

 

  

Clouds will gather up after midnight as a disturbance dives out of Canada and into the Upper Great Plains. Most of what filters in by sunrise Tuesday will be in the form of high clouds as the thicker cloud cover is shown staying west of the Mississippi River. Cloud cover stays put for Tuesday afternoon, leaving highs once again in the upper 50s .

   

Forecast models do show an uptrend in the amount of atmospheric moisture late Tuesday into the first half of Wednesday. Depending on how close this storm system gets as it progresses across the Midwest, this may result in a few light showers. However, it seems the heaviest precipitation totals will end up occurring  to the west and south of the Stateline. 
 

Slim rainfall chances return this week with seasonable temperatures

Much of Monday and Tuesday will end up dry, but scattered rain showers will slide into Northern Illinois Tuesday afternoon and evening. Highest coverage of rain will be centered West and South where better forcing and moisture will be present. Locally, rainfall chances may only peak around 30-40%, with some in Southern Wisconsin possibly remaining dry.

As the low pressure system bringing the showers pivots Southward, we will see drier air wrap in Wednesday afternoon. A few isolated showers may still remain early on, but most of the afternoon and evening appear to be dry. Winds will increase a bit as the low pressure develops overhead, with gusts nearing 30 mph from the Northeast on Wednesday.

A blocking high pressure across the Great Lakes will work to limit the rainfall around here, with the steadiest of the rain following the track of the surface low pressure to our West and South. There is a plausible scenario for some locations in the Stateline to remain totally dry. Most likely rainfall totals for Rockford may only approach a quarter inch at the most. South and West of Rockford toward Davenport, Iowa and Peoria, IL may receive closer to a half inch or more.

Temperatures throughout this time will remain fairly consistent, with afternoon highs in the mid-50s and overnight lows ranging from the mid-30s to the low 40s under more clouds. Halloween is trending drier with temperatures likely reaching the upper 40s by the time for late evening trick-or-treating.