Bigger temperature swings expected following Fall cold fronts

 

Temperatures through the end of September and beginning of October were fairly consistent warming into the 80s, well above the average high. It's only been as of the last week or so that temperatures have been a little closer to their daily average, in the mid-60s. But as we get further into the month of October, and further into the Fall season, those temperature swings become a little more common.

As the Earth rotates around the sun our seasons begin to change. The air mass in the higher latitudes get colder while the air mass near the Equator remains warm. The difference in those two air masses becomes greater, driving stronger storm systems to move across the country. The jet stream tries to pull down the colder air from the north while the warmer air to the south tries to hang on.

Wind around low-pressure flows counterclockwise, meaning we typically feel a southerly wind ahead of the low and a northerly/northwesterly wind behind the low. With each low-pressure system that passes, the air mass that follows tends to be a little cooler. These systems often come with gusty winds as well.

Throughout this week we will feel those temperature swings, rising into the 70s for a day or two and then falling back into the 60s. Overnight lows will get colder too with nights dipping into the 30s. Wednesday's high will be quite a bit cooler than what we felt Tuesday thanks to cloud cover sticking around, scattered light rain showers, and a breezy easterly wind. But by Thursday winds will turn back to the south bringing afternoon temperatures back into the 70s. That warmth will carry over into Friday, and some of Saturday,

before cooler air arrives Saturday night and Sunday following a strong cold front Friday night. Rain will be likely late Friday evening with the possibility for a few rumbles of thunder into Saturday morning. The risk for severe weather will increase further downstate and through parts of Missouri and Arkansas.