Showers end Wednesday, but thunderstorms could return this weekend

 If you thought it was a little more difficult to get out of bed this morning you likely weren't alone as thick cloud cover, cool temperatures, and on/off showers greeted us early on. The high temperature for Rockford only reached 60 degrees, our coolest temperature since May 21st when the thermometer reached 52, and our first time below average since early September!

The showers from earlier this afternoon continue to diminish, running into drier air over north-central Illinois. Skies will remain cloudy while some drizzle and sprinkles continue into the evening. We may see a few widely scattered light showers redevelop after Midnight as warmer air aloft is drawn north with a warm front into the Midwest. This will help bring temperatures back above average, climbing close to 70 Thursday afternoon and then into the mid and upper 70s Friday. An isolated shower or two can't completely be ruled out Thursday to the north and northwest.

But the big story heading into the weekend will be the roller-coaster ride in weather as showers and thunderstorms are possible, along with another drop in temperatures Sunday.

Low pressure out west will get pushed north into Canada, riding up and over a ridge of high pressure that extends from the Gulf into the Midwest. Moisture trapped beneath this ridge will unfortunately give us some cloud cover and not our typical 'cloud-free' skies like we normally experience with high pressure.

As the low lifts into Canada Friday a warm southwest wind will blow ushering in well above average temperatures for most of the region during the afternoon. A cold front to the west will begin to move east late Friday into Saturday, with some of the latest model guidance slowing the front down from the last 24 hours, moving it move through Saturday afternoon. Moisture will continue to be pulled north ahead of the front which will lead to showers and a few thunderstorms late Friday night into Saturday. There is just enough instability, moisture, and forcing around to allow for the development of those thunderstorms.

Temperatures will remain warm Friday night which will lead to a somewhat warmer day on Saturday before the front passes through. A secondary low-pressure system looks to develop along the front (which could be right overhead) Saturday afternoon and evening, quickly zipping into the Great Lakes Sunday morning. This quick development of the low is in response to some very strong winds carving out a deep trough over northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin Saturday, while giving us the potential for some heavier rainfall into the start of Sunday. 

Due to the quick development of that low winds are expected to increase into Sunday, shifting around to the northwest and gusting to at least 30 mph. Colder air will also be quickly pulled in behind the low which will bring temperatures down both Sunday afternoon and Sunday night. High pressure will then move in Monday which calm both the skies and wind for the afternoon before our next weather maker comes in towards the middle of the week.