Rainfall has been in short supply for northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin the last few weeks and this has led to worsening drought conditions across the entire region. The latest drought monitor from the National Drought Mitigation Center shows severe drought conditions developing over a portion of northwest Illinois, including some of the counties of Stephenson, Carroll, Whiteside, Ogle, and Lee.
Since October 1st the Rockford airport has only recorded 0.36 inches of rainfall, a deficit of 1.02 inches. Since September 1st we've only recorded 1.41 inches, a deficit of 3.59 inches. Rain chances do return this weekend as a couple storms systems move across the Midwest and Great Lakes. The first chance for rain arrives late Friday night ahead of a cold front. This won't be a widespread rain and will likely only give us a couple tenths of an inch. But an isolated storm or two could bump that number up through sunrise Saturday.
Additional showers and thunderstorms will be likely through Saturday afternoon adding up to another few tenths of an inch. Saturday night a secondary low-pressure system will develop along the cold front, quickly lifting northeast into the Great Lakes early Sunday morning. Heavy rain will accompany the low but will mainly remain to our east over east-central Illinois, close to Chicago, and northwest Indiana. Totals there could top two inches or more.
Locally there could be some locations that pick up close to an inch between and thunderstorms that develop either late Friday night or throughout the day Saturday, but the widespread heavy rain appears to just miss us to the east.
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