First snow of the season likely Saturday evening

 Behind yet another cold front Friday evening, temperatures will drop into the upper 30s overnight into Saturday morning. But about a mile or so above the surface, temperatures will drop below freezing by around midnight. This low-level temperature map will be key in determining when precipitation flips over from rain to snow.

Typically, you can see snow even when the surface temperature is just above freezing in the mid-30s. But upper 30s and 40s, you will more than likely see rain. That is how all the precipitation is likely to start as Saturday afternoon. Initial rain begins moving in around 12-2PM from West to East.

By late afternoon or early evening, our temperature above the surface will be falling further below freezing, dropping the surface temperature ever closer to 32°. This will allow some of the precipitation to begin transitioning over to rain/snow mix or even all snow. Futurecast depicts this starting around 4-5PM, with other weather models not far behind. By 6-8PM, we should begin to see snow as the main precipitation type across much of the area.

As night falls, temperatures will only fall faster to the low 30s. But the most abundant moisture will be pulling away to the Southeast around this time, limiting precipitation rates. Light snow showers will remain possible on a scattered basis through early Sunday morning.

Around an inch or two of snow could come down, but little to none of that will stick and stay on the ground. Minor accumulations will generally be limited to grassy and elevated surfaces, given the warm surface temperatures. Friday afternoon saw quite a bit of sunshine and afternoon highs in the 60s, so road and pavement temperatures will likely hold in the 40s as the snow comes down. This will melt away much if not all of the snow that falls on roadways.

Additional flurries or light snow showers may be possible Sunday afternoon and evening, but little to no accumulation is expected during this time. We will have to watch the placement of a few lake-effect bands of snow Sunday evening into Monday. Areas most favored for any lake-effect snow is across Northern Indiana into Michigan, but there is a slim chance for a quick band of snow to push over Northeastern Illinois Sunday night and Monday morning.

Temperatures will be quite a bit cooler Sunday and Monday, with afternoon highs failing to reach 40 degrees either day. Overnight lows will drop into the low or mid-20s. Strong winds Sunday afternoon into early Monday will make wind chills feel closer to the