Tuesday, November 18, 2025

Late week system trends more south, lowering rain chances locally

Forecast models handled Monday night's rainfall noticeably well as most Stateline locales wound up on either side of the .25" mark. 

Galena - .35"

Sterling - .25"

Rockford - .19"  

A few showers remain possible during the first half of our Tuesday before conditions dry out. With the more "rich" moisture displaced to our east, any lingering shower will be scattered and light. Cloud cover, along with a light northeasterly breeze, will remain in place this afternoon, limiting highs to the low 40s. 

Our attention will then turn to a secondary low that takes a somewhat similar approach to the region. This time however, it will originate over the Southwest U.S and the southern plains. 

The biggest uncertainty with this system has been the track. Forecast models continue to trend more and more south with the track of the surface low, leaving the northward extent of the "richer" moisture across the plains and the Tennessee Valley. 

Locally, this would decrease our chance for late-week rain. Given, its still a few days out and things could change, but from what it looks like, our rain chances for Thursday and Friday continue to lower. Highs will end up slightly warmer in the low 50s, remaining in the low 50s for the upcoming weekend. 
 

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